Chaos theory and the limits of predictability
Keynote Theatre | Wed 21 Jan 1:30 p.m.–2:15 p.m.
Presented by
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Jacinta is a tech lead at the Bureau of Meteorology. Jacinta has been a long time member and contributor in the Australian open source scene, and has spoken at many local and international conferences. When not at work or at a conference, Jacinta hosts dinner parties, reads a lot and plans garden improvements.
Jacinta is a tech lead at the Bureau of Meteorology. Jacinta has been a long time member and contributor in the Australian open source scene, and has spoken at many local and international conferences. When not at work or at a conference, Jacinta hosts dinner parties, reads a lot and plans garden improvements.
Abstract
Given enough data - is it possible to model reality?
Developers too often turn a blind eye to the unpredictable nature of nature. When we aren't able to see reason in a process, an argument or the universe at large, it is because we aren't looking hard enough. The overarching belief in science and technology is often that everything that happens is due to predictable patterns which are simple if viewed correctly.
Unfortunately thats rarely true. Not only do we struggle to isolate all of the relevant initial conditions, even when we can even the slightest mistreat of those initial conditions can result in wildly varying results. This is the domain of chaos, summarised by Lorentz as "when the present determines the future but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future."
This talk will give a brief introduction to chaos theory and a hand wave at the many domains it turns up in, before diving into some software-specific domains. If all goes well, it will change how you think about predictability and give you some suggestions on how to work with the inherently unpredictable.
Given enough data - is it possible to model reality?
Developers too often turn a blind eye to the unpredictable nature of nature. When we aren't able to see reason in a process, an argument or the universe at large, it is because we aren't looking hard enough. The overarching belief in science and technology is often that everything that happens is due to predictable patterns which are simple if viewed correctly.
Unfortunately thats rarely true. Not only do we struggle to isolate all of the relevant initial conditions, even when we can even the slightest mistreat of those initial conditions can result in wildly varying results. This is the domain of chaos, summarised by Lorentz as "when the present determines the future but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future."
This talk will give a brief introduction to chaos theory and a hand wave at the many domains it turns up in, before diving into some software-specific domains. If all goes well, it will change how you think about predictability and give you some suggestions on how to work with the inherently unpredictable.